Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home in Moncton?
An Honest Market Analysis.
The question every buyer is asking. Here’s the straight answer — with the data to back it up.
Prices are stable and appreciating modestly. Inventory is the highest it’s been in five years. Interest rates have eased from their 2023 peak. And Moncton’s population keeps growing, which means the demand floor under this market is real. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a “perfect” moment, the conditions right now are about as balanced and buyer-friendly as this market gets.
Now — I want to be honest with you, because “is now a good time to buy?” is almost always the wrong question. The better question is: is now a good time for YOU to buy, given your financial situation, timeline, and goals? That’s what I’ll try to help you think through here.
Let me walk through every factor that matters right now, rate each one honestly, and then tell you who I think should move and who should wait.
The Key Factors — Rated Honestly
This is the factor that’s driven most of the market’s hesitancy over the last two years. The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hike cycle of 2022–2023 pushed 5-year fixed mortgage rates to over 6% — and a lot of buyers simply stepped back. The good news: that cycle is over. The overnight rate has come down significantly, and most major banks expect it to hold at around 2.25% through much of 2026.
In practical terms, 5-year fixed rates in Canada are now in the mid-to-high 4% range for well-qualified buyers — well down from the 2023 peak. That’s not 2020’s ultra-low rates, but it’s a meaningful improvement that has brought a lot of buyers back to the table.
One note of caution: TD Economics and RBC both flag the possibility of modest rate increases in late 2026 or into 2027, depending on inflation and CUSMA trade negotiations. If rates are a key factor in your decision, acting in the first half of 2026 before spring competition intensifies may be the better window.
Moncton’s average sale price was $386,131 in 2025 — up 2.4% from 2024 — and RE/MAX forecasts a further 2.7% increase in 2026. That’s measured, sustainable appreciation, not a bubble. For buyers, this means two things: prices aren’t going to crash if you buy now, and they’re likely to be higher a year from now if you wait.
Critically, Moncton is bucking a national trend. While Ontario benchmark prices are down 7.0% year-over-year and BC is down 4.9%, Atlantic Canada — and Moncton specifically — continues to hold and grow. According to WOWA’s February 2026 national housing report, year-over-year price gains remain concentrated in Atlantic Canada while most of the rest of Canada is declining.
This is probably the most underappreciated reason why right now is a good time to buy. According to Royal LePage Atlantic, inventory levels in Moncton have climbed to a five-year high. That means you have more homes to choose from, homes are spending more time on the market, and you have slightly more negotiating leverage than at any point since 2020.
This is a meaningful shift from the frenzy of 2021–2022, when buyers were waiving conditions, offering $50,000–$100,000 over asking, and still losing. The market is genuinely more balanced now — not a buyer’s market, but not a feeding frenzy either. You can take your time, do a proper inspection, and negotiate reasonably.
The demand underpinning this market is real and ongoing. Moncton added nearly 27,000 residents between 2021 and 2024 — one of the fastest growth rates for any Canadian city of its size. That population is creating sustained demand for housing across all price segments. Unlike markets driven purely by investor speculation, Moncton’s demand is driven by people who actually need homes to live in.
One flag worth noting: TD Economics points out that national population growth is slowing in 2026 as immigration targets are reduced and non-permanent residents depart. This is primarily an issue for major urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver, where investor and rental demand is more tied to immigration flows. For Moncton, interprovincial migration from higher-cost provinces remains a stronger driver — and that trend shows no sign of reversing.
Here’s the seasonal dynamic every buyer should understand. Spring is when buyers who spent the winter researching all come to market at the same time — and competition increases. Royal LePage’s Shannon Auffrey specifically noted that lower interest rates are expected to encourage more buyers off the sidelines this spring, and RE/MAX echoes this, forecasting a “noticeable uptick in first-time buyer activity” as rates ease in 2026.
More buyers in the market means more competition on the homes you want. The window of relatively reduced competition — and the negotiating leverage that comes with it — is right now, in late winter/early spring, before the seasonal rush hits.
Moncton vs. The Rest of Canada — How We Stack Up
Context matters. Here’s how Moncton compares to other major markets right now:
| Market | Avg. Price (2025/26) | YOY Price Change | 2026 Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🌿 Greater Moncton | $386,131 | ▲ +2.4% | Balanced — buyer-friendly |
| Halifax | ~$526,000 | ▲ Positive | Sellers’ market territory |
| National Average | $807,200 | ▼ -1.5% | Soft — buyer caution |
| Ontario | $778,102 | ▼ -6.4% | Buyers’ market |
| Greater Vancouver | $1,210,684 | ≈ +0.2% | Soft — excess supply |
| Quebec (provincial) | $538,121 | ▲ +5.5% | Strong — all-time highs |
The takeaway is clear: Moncton is one of the few Canadian markets combining affordable prices, positive appreciation, and balanced conditions all at once. Most markets offer one or two of those — Moncton offers all three.
“From a Greater Moncton standpoint, 2026 will be a strategic year to buy. The market is balanced, predictable, and supported by strong fundamentals — suggesting limited volatility and sustainable appreciation.” — RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook, January 2026
Who Should Buy Now — and Who Should Wait
Not everyone is in the same position. Here’s my honest assessment:
✅ You should probably buy now if…
- You’re financially ready — stable income, emergency fund in place, down payment saved
- You plan to stay in the home for at least 3–5 years
- You’re currently renting and your monthly rent is approaching what a mortgage would cost
- You’re relocating from Ontario or BC and have equity to deploy
- You’re a first-time buyer targeting the $350K–$425K sweet spot
- You want to act before the spring competition surge arrives
⏳ You might want to wait if…
- Your employment situation is uncertain or you’re between jobs
- Your down payment is not fully saved and you’d be stretching to qualify
- You’re buying purely for short-term appreciation — Moncton rewards patience, not flipping
- You’re expecting a major life change (job relocation, family situation) within 12 months
- Your credit score needs work before you can access the best rates
Frequently Asked Questions
The consensus from RE/MAX, Royal LePage, and other major forecasters is no — Moncton prices are expected to continue appreciating modestly in 2026, with RE/MAX forecasting +2.7%. Unlike Ontario and BC where prices are declining, Moncton’s population growth and relative affordability continue to support the price floor. A significant drop would require a major economic shock that is not currently anticipated for the region.
This is a common instinct, but it’s worth thinking through carefully. Most major banks forecast rates holding steady at ~2.25% overnight for most of 2026 — further significant cuts are not widely expected. Meanwhile, every month you wait is a month you’re likely paying rent rather than building equity, and prices are forecast to rise through the year. If lower rates do arrive and bring more buyers to market, you’ll face more competition, not less. For most buyers, waiting for lower rates is a false economy — especially in a market where prices continue to appreciate.
Right now — late winter/early spring — tends to be the better window for buyers. You have the highest inventory in five years, less competition than the spring peak will bring, and sellers who have been on the market through winter are often more motivated to negotiate. Once the spring market fully arrives, more buyers return, competition increases, and that negotiating leverage shrinks. For serious buyers who are ready, acting now rather than waiting for the April–June rush is generally the smarter move.
It’s a real risk worth acknowledging. TD Economics specifically flags CUSMA trade negotiations as a downside risk for the Canadian housing market and economy broadly. New Brunswick’s economy has some exposure to cross-border trade, though less than Ontario or BC. If trade tensions escalate significantly, they could dampen consumer confidence and slow the housing market. That said, most forecasters currently treat this as a risk to monitor rather than a reason to hold off — Moncton’s fundamentals remain strong, and the local job market is diversified enough to absorb some external headwinds.
RE/MAX identifies the $350,000–$425,000 range as the sweet spot for first-time buyers in 2026 — this is where you’ll find the most selection, the most motivated sellers, and the strongest long-term value. The $425,000–$500,000 range is active with move-up buyers, and the luxury segment above $500,000 is up 19% year-over-year, suggesting strong confidence at the upper end. For investors and first-timers specifically, the $350K–$425K range in Moncton North, Riverview, or select pockets of Dieppe offers the best combination of affordability, appreciation potential, and rental demand.
Want a Straight Answer for Your Situation?
Every buyer’s situation is different. Give me a call and let’s talk through whether now is the right time for you — no pressure, no sales pitch.
📞 Call Richard: 506-802-8805Richard@Wontorra.com · wontorra.com · 3 Percent Realty Atlantic Inc.
